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We cannot compare quality of those two teams, not at all, not even experiences from bigger matches, actually nothing, but it's true that Caen need to win points if they want to breath easier. On the other hand, as mentioned, Marseille cannot afford to lose another points because Bordeaux is already 3 points above them. With win, Marseille would put pressure on Bordeaux who will play right after them and against Dijon, who is in my opinion better side then Caen. It's raining in Caen, which could be advantage for "bad football" - as I said million times this year, Caen is putting all hopes on their tall strikers and successful crosses, but I believe that Marseille will be much better prepared on them as Metz was for example. With Fanni and especially Rolando in defence, they are physical and really tough to beat in aerial duels. Marseille, especially with Payet on the pitch is much more dangerous from set-pieces and also from shots from distance and wet pitch might be a problem for Caen goalkeeper Vercoutre. All in all, I am going with -1 Marseille win, as I think that they are at least for 2 goals better team than Caen is. They lost at home against Nantes, Montpellier and Monaco with results 0-2, 0-2 and 0-3 and I think that Marseille can do something similar. They will be much stronger in midfield, Thauvin will be too much for their defence, and with Gomis back, conversion rate of Marseille will be better as well. Whole analysis here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/04/pick-marseille-ah-1-pinnacle-210-today.html
I am former football player, played and trained under different coaches, also in the highest division, but stopped playing because of pretty serious back injury. I’ve been always passionate about tactics and my analysis are pretty different then analysis you are used to see. I am trying to predict who will have bigger possession, possibilities of creating chances, on which areas of pitch teams will be in advantage, and where in disadvantage. Calculations are more or less made on average performances of players/teams, and because the ball is round I am aware that everything can happen, but sports betting business is long distance run and in long term I know that this tactics is bringing me good results. Thanks to a friend, I was lucky to get to know the world of arbing. I believe that many of you don’t know this word, but it’s about sports arbitrage, where you are covering both (all) sides of the bet. Because of arbing, my knowledge about odds, bookmakers, odds movements, closing odds, is much much bigger. Remember, that knowing just the sport side of sports betting is not enough!