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Stade Municipal will host only two more matches in this season of Ligue 1, and even if Toulouse is safe, I believe that Le Téfécé won't make it easier for 18th placed Caen. Toulouse is currently on 12th position with 42 points and in pretty poor run recently - only 3 wins since 5th of February. It's true that they didn't lose not even one match on Municipal since then, but draws are not pushing you too high on the league table. Dupraz cannot count on suspended Bodiger, while Michelin and Akpa Akpro are missing for longer period and are not among important players. For Caen, this match is crucial, but not as much as next one might be. They will host Rennes in next round, while in last round of the season they are going to face PSG. Defenders Guilbert and Genevois featured on trainings in this week, but they aren't in the squad for this match, so Garande will miss both mentioned players, plus forward Bazile and Louis and midfielders Seube and Adeoti. For me, that's a too many problems for the team which is already fighting for relegation. It's true that they are in need for points, but will Toulouse care about that? I don't think so. They are the team, who likes to play against the team who considers themselves as a team who should win. Caen is poor in buildup, but they will need to attack today, they will need to show something more then crosses and because of that Toulouse with Delort, Braithwaite, Trejo.. will have lots of space for counters and if Caen lost against Marseille in last round with 1-5, and match before against Nantes with 0-2 (both matches at home), then I really don't understand why would they take points on Municipal, where Toulouse won against PSG (2-0) and Monaco (3-1) for example. They are only without Bodiger, which means that we'll probably see Brazilian Somalia in defensive midfield pair with Blin. All in all, Toulouse would have odds around 1,90 for win if Caen wouldn't have been in situation as they are. With -0,25, we are loosing only half of stake even if match finishes with a draw.
Toulouse AH -0,25
I am former football player, played and trained under different coaches, also in the highest division, but stopped playing because of pretty serious back injury. I’ve been always passionate about tactics and my analysis are pretty different then analysis you are used to see. I am trying to predict who will have bigger possession, possibilities of creating chances, on which areas of pitch teams will be in advantage, and where in disadvantage. Calculations are more or less made on average performances of players/teams, and because the ball is round I am aware that everything can happen, but sports betting business is long distance run and in long term I know that this tactics is bringing me good results. Thanks to a friend, I was lucky to get to know the world of arbing. I believe that many of you don't know this word, but it's about sports arbitrage, where you are covering both (all) sides of the bet. Because of arbing, my knowledge about odds, bookmakers, odds movements, closing odds, is much much bigger. Remember, that knowing just the sport side of sports betting is not enough!